BTC Price Prediction: $180K Target in Play Despite Short-Term Volatility

#BTC

• Technical Strength: MACD bullish crossover and mid-Bollinger positioning suggest accumulation phase
• Institutional Demand: Spot ETF inflows countering miner sell pressure at $100K+ levels
• Regulatory Catalyst: Potential SEC approval of options trading could increase institutional participation

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Short-term Pressure but Bullish Fundamentals Remain

BTC is currently trading at $104,830, slightly below its 20-day moving average of $106,518, indicating short-term bearish pressure. However, the MACD shows bullish momentum with a positive histogram (1980.2057), and price remains firmly within the Bollinger Bands (lower band at $101,793). According to BTCC analyst Olivia, 'The $100K support level is holding strong, and the MACD suggests accumulation—this could be a healthy pullback before the next leg up.'

Mixed Market Sentiment as Institutional Adoption Grows Amid Miner Sell-Offs

Positive catalysts like Circle's IPO rally and Trump Media's Bitcoin acquisition speculation contrast with miner sell-offs and India's regulatory delays. Olivia notes, 'Institutional inflows are absorbing miner sell pressure—this is a classic bull market consolidation phase. The $180K price target for 2025 remains plausible if ETF flows accelerate.'

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Circle's IPO Rally Boosts Crypto and Stock Markets as BTC Surges

Circle's blockbuster IPO ignited a rally across both crypto and traditional markets, with its shares peaking at $123.49—nearly quadruple its $31 offering price. The euphoria propelled the Dow Jones up 443 points and lifted Bitcoin alongside risk assets, while gold retreated.

Wall Street analysts view the event as a watershed moment for IPOs after a prolonged drought. "This extends beyond crypto," said Renaissance Capital's Matt Kennedy, noting building momentum for new listings despite lingering tariff uncertainties. NYSE President Lynn Martin called it a bellwether for 2024's IPO market.

India's Central Bank Holds Firm on Crypto Stance as Supreme Court Voices Frustration Over Regulatory Delays

The Reserve Bank of India reiterated its cautious position on digital assets during a post-policy press briefing. Governor Malhotra emphasized the institution's longstanding concerns about cryptocurrency risks to financial stability and monetary policy. "RBI has maintained a consistent stance on this issue," Malhotra stated, noting that a government committee continues to examine the matter.

This development follows scathing remarks from India's Supreme Court, which criticized the government's sluggish progress in establishing a crypto regulatory framework. Justices Kant and Singh compared Bitcoin trading to hawala transactions during a bail hearing for an individual arrested for illegal BTC trading. The court revealed it had sought policy clarification from the government two years prior, highlighting the prolonged regulatory vacuum.

Bitcoin Rebounds From $100K Dip as Miner Activity Signals Potential Volatility

Bitcoin has clawed back from a sharp sell-off that briefly pushed its price below $100,000, fueled by market turbulence stemming from public tensions between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The cryptocurrency now trades at $104,891, steadying after a 24-hour low. Behind the price action, a surge in miner activity hints at brewing volatility.

On-chain data reveals miners have ramped up BTC transfers to exchanges, with daily inflows exceeding $1 billion between May 19 and May 28—unprecedented levels in Bitcoin's market cycles. These movements often precede sell pressure, as miners typically liquidate holdings to cover operational costs or capitalize on price strength. The ecosystem’s key liquidity providers are now positioning for potential offloading, which could test the market’s resilience.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Forms Bear Cross—Market Sentiment Turns Cautious

Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has dipped below its 200-day simple moving average, a development flagged by analyst Ali Martinez as a potential bearish signal. The metric compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized cap—a measure of the aggregate acquisition cost of all circulating coins.

When the MVRV Ratio falls below this key moving average, it historically indicates that the average investor is holding coins at a loss. The realized cap methodology assigns each token's value based on its last on-chain transaction price, effectively tracking the baseline investment across the network.

This technical pattern emerges as traders scrutinize on-chain metrics for clues about market direction. The crossing suggests profit-taking may be outweighing new capital inflows, though Bitcoin has repeatedly demonstrated resilience after such signals during previous cycles.

Institutional Bitcoin Adoption Surges Despite Price Dip

Wall Street's appetite for Bitcoin futures has reached unprecedented levels, with the CME reporting a record 217 large Open Interest holders by May's end—a 36% increase since early 2024. This growth signals a strategic shift from reactive trading to long-term accumulation, underscoring institutional confidence in Bitcoin's role as a hedge against geopolitical and economic turbulence.

Corporate adoption continues to accelerate, with MicroStrategy leading the charge. The firm added 705 BTC to its holdings this week, bringing its total stash to 580,955 BTC—a $75.1 million bet on Bitcoin's future. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has mirrored this strategy, while GameStop's recent moves suggest broader mainstream acceptance.

Despite Bitcoin's 1.64% price dip to $103,984, the institutional narrative remains bullish. The surge in CME participation coincides with mounting uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, particularly those linked to former President Donald Trump's potential return to office.

Bitcoin Stabilizes at $104K as Bulls Defend Key Support Level

Bitcoin has found footing near $104,000 after a sharp retreat from recent highs around $112,000, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average serving as a springboard for the rebound. The recovery signals persistent bullish conviction, underscored by the Relative Strength Index climbing from neutral territory.

Traders are monitoring the 26-day EMA as a potential launchpad for a relief rally. A decisive break above this level could propel Bitcoin toward the $107,000–$108,000 resistance zone. Yet the advance remains vulnerable—trading volume has failed to confirm the move, leaving the market at an inflection point.

The $100,000 psychological level looms as critical support, reinforced by its former role as resistance during April's breakout. Market participants await either a confirmed breakout above short-term resistance or a retest of lower supports to determine the next directional bias.

Bitcoin Miner Sell-Off Threatens Price Stability as Exchange Transfers Surge

Bitcoin miners are offloading holdings at unprecedented levels, sparking concerns of a prolonged price downturn. On-chain data reveals a historic spike in BTC transfers to exchanges, with realized inflows exceeding $1 billion daily between May 19 and May 28, 2025. This follows a pattern seen during January's rally, when miners liquidated 140,000 BTC worth $13.72 billion.

The sell pressure contributed to Bitcoin's recent dip to $100,372 on Binance. Analysts warn that sustained miner distributions could push prices toward the low $90,000s, echoing past corrections during bull market cycles. Market participants are watching exchange wallets closely for signs of supply absorption.

Bitcoin To Hit $180,000 In 2025? Analyst Highlights The Trigger

Bitcoin briefly dipped to $103,450 yesterday, liquidating approximately $1 billion in leveraged positions before rebounding to $104,400. The recovery suggests the pullback may be temporary, with crypto researcher Klarch pointing to historical halving cycles as evidence of further upside potential.

Post-halving performance patterns reveal striking similarities across cycles. Following the 2016 halving, BTC surged 280% within 365 days. The 2020 halving preceded a 550% rally over 367 days. Current gains of just 70% over 416 days since the last halving appear modest by comparison, indicating room for substantial growth if historical trends hold.

On-chain metrics support the bullish thesis, with trading volume and active addresses showing renewed network activity. Market participants appear to be positioning for what could become Bitcoin's most explosive growth phase yet.

Trump Media Plans $12B Securities Offering Amid Bitcoin Acquisition Speculation

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) has filed to raise up to $12 billion through a multi-tiered securities offering, including common stock, convertible notes, and private placements. While the company hasn't disclosed specific allocation plans, market observers note the timing coincides with growing institutional interest in cryptocurrency treasury strategies.

The offering structure reveals sophisticated capital-raising tactics: 84.6 million common shares at $0.0001 par value, alongside $1.44 billion in institutional private placements priced at $25.72 per share. The convertible notes due 2028 add another $1 billion potential liquidity pool, with flexible distribution channels including underwriters and agents.

Market participants are particularly intrigued by TMTG's recent Bitcoin treasury moves. The filing's vagueness on fund deployment leaves room for speculation about further BTC acquisitions, mirroring corporate strategies pioneered by MicroStrategy and Tesla. The offering's scale could significantly impact Bitcoin's institutional demand curve if even a fraction is allocated to digital assets.

Is BTC a good investment?

BTC presents a compelling investment case when analyzing both technicals and fundamentals:

Olivia emphasizes: 'The 20% rebound from $100K shows strong institutional demand. With halving effects yet to fully price in and spot ETF volumes growing, we maintain our 12-month target of $140K-$180K.'

Investors should monitor miner outflow rates and regulatory developments in key markets.